On the one hand, Ethereum sees promising signs of accumulation by key whales. But on the other hand, the specific activities and utility on the chain still look ordinary. So let's see if the price of the ETH opinion vortex is recovering? -or is there a possibility of sub-$1,000 ETH coming up again.
Shark and Whale Activity
First, Ethereum`s key shark and whale addresses are painting an interesting picture. Over the past year, like BTC, millionaire addresses have lowered most of the supply if conditions looked poor.
But a month ago, we saw these big ETH addresses start changing their hues for the first time in a long time.
From November 7 to now, there are 100 to 1,000,000. Ethereum addresses with a total supply of 1.36% of ETH have accumulated, with a total supply of 1.36%, and ETH (compared to before) has strengthened by 2.09%.
We can see this metric as an upside argument as ETH interest in the price of large addresses picks up again.
Since hitting an all-time high in November 2021, the volume of discussions related to most assets has continued to decline as more and more months have passed. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as that's the natural process for weak hands to pull out of digital currencies.
However, it is interesting that Ethereum is so under-discussed compared to other top assets.
From December 2020 to the present, since late October, compared with the top 100 assets of digital currency, the discussion ratio of ETH is actually the lowest. This shows that the second-ranked asset among digital currencies is actually getting a bit of attention.
dominance of eth social network
The lack of interest from whales since the merger has been able to push the price up without resistance, turning it into an upward indicator.
MVRV (mean address transaction revenue)
Average earnings for long-term (365 days) addresses active over the past year are still painful. About 13 months ago, the price of Ethereum was approaching $50,000 before falling off a cliff. Losses in percentage of ETH investment are still -50% or more.
Given a 365-day trading return of -25% or more (currently -30%), there is a cap on how much further downside can be based on ETH's seven-year history.
Ethereum Price Gains
On the other hand, medium-term investors could still see prices move in either direction. At the end of November, when prices bottomed out, the asset was actually up 17% since November 22nd. However, for many people, it never feels that way. MVRV indicates long-term upside, indicators say upside.
Ethereum Supply Exchange
Just last month, the supply of Ethereum on exchanges dropped significantly. Even more impressive, 12.1% of ETH exchanges are now at a four-year low. The last thing we want, especially after a 13-month drop of over 75%, is for supply to move to exchanges, which means we may be waiting for more sales.
That's not to say future sales won't be around the corner, but the lower the exchange ETH offers, the closer to the bottom the better.
ETH supply on exchanges
Of course, for this reason, we should consider this indicator as an ascending indicator for Ethereum.
Funding rate (perpetual contract)
After the FTX collapse, we saw a large number of traders bearish in mid-November, which generally resulted in the liquidation of short positions and an increase in price. That's a 17% gain in three weeks. Since then, however, ETH capitalization rates have been flat.
We should see some signs of greed or fear bias, so how to drive the next exchange liquidation ETH impacts the price point of view.
Funding Rate Cryptocurrency Exchanges
Therefore, as the capital rate has not broken out at present, this is a neutral indicator for the time being.
Because the price of Ethereum has risen for three consecutive weeks, we are now seeing short-term profit gains outweigh short-term losses. This makes sense. The surge in earnings you saw yesterday was actually the biggest daily surge in the last three months.
That doesn't mean history will repeat itself, but after the last major earnings surge following the ETH merger, the price fell 19% in four days.
Digital Currency Investors Have Realized Profit Losses
Therefore, we should consider it a bearish indicator, at least in the short term.
result
In general, Ethereum`s chain and social metrics are in line with public opinion. Whether it is a promising investment really depends on the time frame.
long? Yes, it's safe to say that Ethereum is likely closer to the impending three-year low than the three-year high. But are we in the midst of our greatest pain? Maybe not yet.
But as you saw in early November, with news of the FTX implosion breaking out, the FUD needed to count as a mid-term bull market is in place.
