BTC (BTC) price continues to trade below the $22,000 level. The broader narrative among investors and the mainstream media suggests that risk aversion is the dominant argument ahead of this week's Jackson Hole summit.
During the three-day symposium, the Fed is expected to explain its views on inflation. Views on the overall health of the U.S. economy.
Meanwhile, digital currency Twitter traders continue to imagine a "Fed pivot" i.e. capped at 25 basis points below 0.00, some form of monetary easing occurs, but the chances of the Fed adopting a dovish view - given the central bank's 2% Inflation targeting, the short-term view seems to be divorced from reality.
There is a saying among investors regarding BTC`s recent price action:
"Downplaying the short-term trend in favor of the longer-term trend."
From a bird`s-eye view, BTC prices are in a clear downtrend, continuing a four-month-old repeating bear flag.
Of course, on-chain data suggests that prices may have bottomed out.
Of course, checking the total volume of whale and shrimp BTC addresses and some on-chain information may point to an accumulation.
Yes, open interest on BTC and ETH continues to hit all-time highs, bullish on ETHMerge and ETH Proof of Work, hard fork token narrative gains strength and triggers it BTC and ETH short squeeze.
These things will happen, but beware of those narrators full of marijuana dreams, and remember that the trend is always a good friend that investors can rely on.
As unpleasant as it sounds, the trend is down. BTC continues to encounter resistance at its long-term downtrend line, with the price failing to reach $20. Resistance is found at key moving averages such as the 50 and 200-day SMAs.
Every time the price dips just to create a flagpole, then a "consolidation" creates the flag of the bear flag continuation pattern. As shown by the pink frame on the daily chart, the BTC price was simply trading within a defined range before falling below that range, into the visible range of volume and potential liquidity as indicated by the flow map.
Essentially, "not much to see here" until the price charts some daily candles that represent higher highs, i.e. BTC to clear $25,000, narrowing the $25,000 to $29,000 volume gap.
From there, we either expect to see consolidation in the new higher range, or the 20-MA and 50-MA as support, and the trend will continue to reverse. Of course, as mentioned earlier, there are plenty of other data points that effectively demonstrate why the current price range is a buy zone, but what may be true for investors may not necessarily be true for everyone.
Some investors have the ability to open up and down here because they're the same, it's part of their plan. Someone else's wallet is too small to afford the economic cost of being locked in a red position for several months. It always motivates investors to conduct their own research, write their own papers, and manage risk in a way that best suits their situation.
With Jackson Hole on the horizon, the Fed will need to keep raising rates until inflation and other indicators are under control. The stock market is still closely related to the price of Bitcoin, so the key is whether the future actions of the SPX and DJI continue to move higher, or whether the future actions of the Fed start to suppress the recent bullish trend.
